% Thomas Kuster
% 24. November 2005
% Seminar Atmosphäre

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\title{Models predict a decrease in tropical cyclone activity}
\subtitle{Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming \cite{vecchi2007}}
\author{%
  Peter Barmet, Thomas Kuster, André Welti%\inst{1}
  }
\institute[ETH Zürich]{
 %\inst{1}%
 Department of Environmental Sciences\\
 ETH Zürich}
\date[ETH 2007]{Cloud Dynamics, June 18, 2007}

\subject{Increased wind shear in model projections}
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%   1. Semester, MSc Enviromentale Science and Atmosphere and Climate Science, ETH Zürich\\
%   \hyperref{http://fam-kuster.ch/index.php?navigation=ETH&main=http://n.ethz.ch/student/kusterth/eth/html/}{}{}{http://fam-kuster.ch}

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  \frametitle{Outline}
  \tableofcontents
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\section{Introduction}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Impact of Vertical Wind Shear}
 \begin{block}{Factors}
 \begin{itemize}
  \item Several environmental factors influence the development of tropical cyclones %There are several enviromental factors that influence the development of tropical cyclones.
  \item You know that from the lectures.
 \end{itemize}
 \end{block}
 \begin{block}{Vertical Wind Shear}
  Of particular importance: vertical wind shear ($V_s$)
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Big $V_s$ $\Rightarrow$ inhibits the development of tropical cyclones
  \item $V_s$ > 10\,ms$^{-1}$ $\Rightarrow$ impact is substantial
  \end{itemize}
  "strong shear of 15\,ms$^{-1}$ literally tore an intense strom apart in about one day" \cite{frank2001}
 \end{block}
\end{frame}

\section{Connections}

%\subsection{Triggering Wind Shear}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Connections}
\begin{block}{What depends on what}
 \begin{enumerate}
  \item weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation
  \item stronger wind shear in the Caribbean Sea
  \item break down of tropical cyclones
 \end{enumerate}
\end{block}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
 \frametitle{Pacific Walker Circulation}
 \includegraphics[width=\linewidth]{./pictures/normsit_s-paz}
 \usebeamerfont{klein}
 Source: \cite{forkel}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
 \frametitle{Weakening of the Pacific Walker Circulation}
 \begin{block}{Simulation}
 \begin{itemize}
  \item Different rate of response to surface warming of water vapour and precipitation
  \item weakening of the boundary layer/troposphere mass
exchange
  \item $\approx 5$\% per $^{\circ}$C warming
 \end{itemize}
 %The differential rate of response to surface warming of water vapour and precipitation implies a weakening of the boundary layer/troposphere mass exchange of $\approx 5$\% per $^{\circ}$C warming
 \cite{vecchi2006}
 \end{block}
%  \begin{block}{Verification}
%   See \cite{vecchi2006}
%  \end{block}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
 \frametitle{Correlation between Shear and Walker Weakening}
 \includegraphics[page=2, viewport=74 121 375 248, clip, width=\linewidth]{./paper/vecchi2007}

 \begin{itemize}
 \item Box indicates the region of strong ensamble mean shear increase.
 \item Explains $\approx 50$\% of the inter-model variability in shear enhancement region (SER).
 \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% statische gezeigt
% zonally.symmetric V_s increase within 5° of the equator.

% \begin{frame}
% \begin{block}{Change due to Global Warming}
%   \begin{itemize}
%    \item Decrease in Pacific Walker Circulation
%    \item Explain $\approx 50$\% of the inter-model variability in shear enhancement region (SER) %90°-40°W, 13°-25°N)
%   \end{itemize}
%  \end{block}
% \end{frame}

\section{Shear}
\begin{frame}
 \frametitle{Profiles of Wind at Start and End of 21st Century}
 \includegraphics[page=3, viewport=75 549 535 739, clip, width=\linewidth]{./paper/vecchi2007}
\usebeamerfont{klein}
\mbox{}\hspace{2.5em}Shear Enhancement Region (SER)\hspace{8.5em}Main Development Region (MDR)
\normalsize{}
 \begin{block}{Definition}
  $$ V_s = |u_{850}- u_{200}| $$
 \end{block}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
 \frametitle{Main Development Region (MDR)}
 \includegraphics[page=2, viewport=151 517 458 738, clip, width=\linewidth]{./paper/vecchi2007}
\end{frame}

%\subsection{Increasing Wind Shear}
\begin{frame}
 \frametitle{June--November ensemble mean: $V_s$}
 \includegraphics[page=4, viewport=153 640 169 736, clip, height=0.8\textheight]{./paper/vecchi2007}
 \includegraphics[page=4, viewport=300 640 415 736, clip, height=0.8\textheight]{./paper/vecchi2007}
 \includegraphics[page=4, viewport=415 500 456 693, clip, angle=0, height=0.7\textheight]{./paper/vecchi2007}

%\usebeamerfont{klein} 
%\textcolor{blue}{\hyperlink{foil:lakechichancanab}{$\rightarrow$ Lake Chichancanab}}
 %\only<2>\hyperlink{foil:middleamerica}{Yucatan Peninsula}{Back to Method}
\end{frame}

\section{Other Indices}
\begin{frame}
 \frametitle{Other Tropical Cyclones Related Indices}
 \includegraphics[page=4, viewport=153 549 169 641, clip, height=0.8\textheight]{./paper/vecchi2007}
 \includegraphics[page=4, viewport=300 549 415 641, clip, height=0.8\textheight]{./paper/vecchi2007}
 \includegraphics[page=4, viewport=415 500 456 693, clip, angle=0, height=0.7\textheight]{./paper/vecchi2007}

Relative humidity at 700\,hPa
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 %\only<2>\hyperlink{foil:middleamerica}{Yucatan Peninsula}{Back to Method}
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\section{Conclusion}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Conclusion}
\begin{block}{Change in Wind Shear}
\begin{itemize}
\item Within 5$^{\circ}$ of the Equator a noticeable weakening of $V_s$ $\Rightarrow$ development of tropical cyclones is not possible in this region (lack of corriolis force)
\item Main Development Region (MDR) no change in wind shear
\item Shear Enhancement Region, more wind shear $\Rightarrow$ weakening of tropical cyclones
\end{itemize}
\end{block}
\end{frame}

% All of the following is optional and typically not needed.
\appendix
\section{\appendixname}
\subsection{List of figures}
\begin{frame}[allowframebreaks]
  \frametitle<presentation>{List of figures}

  \begin{thebibliography}{10}
  \beamertemplatearticlebibitems
  % Followed by interesting articles. Keep the list short.
  \bibitem[Vecchi, 2007]{vecchi2007}
    G.~A.~Vecchi et\,al.
    \newblock Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming.
    \newblock {\em Geophysical Research Letters}, 34:L08702, 2007.

  \bibitem[Matthias Forkel]{forkel}
    Matthias Forkel
   \newblock Walker-Zirkulation und El Niño
   \newblock \url{http://www.m-forkel.de/klima/walkz-eln.html}

  \end{thebibliography}
\end{frame}

\subsection{Bibliography}
\begin{frame}[allowframebreaks]
 \frametitle{Bibliography}
 \begin{thebibliography}{Increased wind shear}
  \beamertemplatearticlebibitems  
  % Followed by interesting articles. Keep the list short.  
  \bibitem[Vecchi, 2007]{vecchi2007}
    G.~A.~Vecchi et\,al.
    \newblock Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming.
    \newblock {\em Geophysical Research Letters}, 34:L08702, 2007.

  \bibitem[Vecchi, 2006]{vecchi2006}
    G.~A.~Vecchi et\,al.
    \newblock Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing.
    \newblock {\em Nature}, 441, 73--76, 2006.

  \bibitem[Frank and Ritchie, 2001]{frank2001}
    W.~M.~Frank and E.~A.~Ritchie
    \newblock Effects of vertical wind shear on the intensity and structures of numerically simulated hurricanes.
    \newblock {\em Monthly Weather Review}, 129, 2249--2269.
  \end{thebibliography}
\end{frame}

\subsection{Additional Slides}
\begin{frame}<1>[label=foil:middleamerica]
 \frametitle{June--November ensemble mean: $V_s$}
 \includegraphics[page=4, viewport=153 638 415 736, clip, width=\linewidth]{./paper/vecchi2007}

 \includegraphics[page=4, viewport=421 509 456 693, clip, angle=270, width=\linewidth]{./paper/vecchi2007}
\end{frame}

\end{document}
